When economists talk about recession-proof industries, they usually point to healthcare, utilities or alcohol. They’re forgetting one rather important category.
The business of sex has survived recessions, wars, pandemics, technological revolutions and countless attempts by governments to regulate it. Whether it’s condoms, lingerie, adult entertainment or dating services, people continue to spend money on romance, fantasy and companionship regardless of what the economy is doing.
In fact, some sectors of the adult industry perform surprisingly well when times get tough. As one industry executive observed during the Global Financial Crisis, people may postpone buying a new car, but they rarely postpone being human.
In 2025, the global condom market was valued between $11.75 billion and $14.2 billion. Driven by rising demand for contraceptives, awareness of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), and product innovations, the industry is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 8% to 11% in the coming years
While industry-wide unit sales figures are typically grouped by revenue, estimates suggest tens of billions of units are sold globally each year, with leading brands like Durex accounting for over 1.2 billion and Trojan over 880 million annual sales on their own
The local Australian market is dominated by a handful of major players including Ansell, Durex owner Reckitt, and Japanese manufacturer Okamoto. Industry forecasts suggest the Australian market could grow by almost 9% annually through to 2030.
The reason is hardly mysterious. Governments continue to spend millions promoting safe sex, condoms remain one of the most effective tools for preventing sexually transmitted infections, and unlike many government programs, this one generally enjoys enthusiastic public participation.
Product innovation is also helping. Manufacturers have spent decades attempting to make condoms thinner, stronger, more comfortable and less likely to inspire awkward conversations. Female condoms and new materials continue to expand the market.
Interestingly, economic downturns can be surprisingly good for condom sales.
During the Global Financial Crisis, condom sales actually increased. When people start cancelling overseas holidays, postponing renovations and eating two-minute noodles, they apparently find other ways to entertain themselves.
Back in 2010, Ansell reported that condoms added around $24 million to grocery sales, representing almost 8% annual growth.
The industry’s seasonal trends are equally revealing. Condom sales peak around Christmas and New Year’s Eve, proving that Australians like to celebrate the festive season with enthusiasm and optimism.
Mother’s Day, unsurprisingly, records the lowest sales. Make of that what you will.
Men purchase around 60% of condoms while women account for the remaining 40%. Most purchases occur in supermarkets, followed by pharmacies, convenience stores and petrol stations.
The convenience store purchase remains one of humanity’s great acts of optimism. Nothing says “careful planning” quite like buying a packet of condoms, a can of Red Bull and a meat pie at 11:47 pm.
Lubricant sales have also grown steadily. Durex reported lubricant growth rates that significantly outpaced condom sales, suggesting that Australians may not always be getting older, but they are becoming more practical.
The Great Sex Recession
One of the more surprising social trends of the past decade is that younger generations appear to be having less sex than their parents did at the same age.
For decades, each new generation was expected to become progressively more sexually active as social attitudes liberalised. Instead, researchers across Australia, the United States, Europe and Japan have observed a different pattern.
Generation Z and younger Millennials report fewer sexual partners, fewer relationships and less frequent sexual activity than previous generations.
The reasons remain heavily debated.
Part of the explanation may be economic. Young adults are spending longer in education, entering the housing market later and living with parents for longer periods than previous generations. It is difficult to enjoy a romantic weekend when Mum is asking whether you will be home for dinner.
COVID likely accelerated the trend.
Lockdowns disrupted dating, socialising, university life, travel and nightlife during some of the most socially active years for many young adults. While older Australians often experienced COVID as a temporary interruption, younger people effectively lost several years of traditional social interaction.
Then there is the smartphone.
The first iPhone arrived in 2007. Social media exploded during the following decade. Dating apps made meeting people easier than ever before, yet paradoxically many researchers believe smartphones may also have reduced face-to-face interaction.
Previous generations spent Friday nights at pubs, clubs, parties and social events. Today’s young adults often spend those same hours scrolling, gaming, streaming or communicating digitally.
In short, technology has made it easier to find a date while simultaneously making it easier to avoid leaving the house.
The result has been described by some commentators as a “sex recession”, a gradual decline in sexual activity among younger adults despite unprecedented access to information, entertainment and potential partners.
For the condom industry, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity.
On one hand, fewer sexual encounters can reduce demand. On the other, younger consumers tend to be more health conscious, more aware of sexually transmitted infections and more likely to prioritise protection when they are sexually active.
The long-term impact remains unclear. What is clear is that the future of the condom market may depend less on population growth and more on whether Generation Z eventually swaps screen time for date night.
Fun and Frivolity
The broader adult products market has often followed cultural trends.
Over the past two decades, adult lingerie sales have benefited from everything from Sex and the City to burlesque revivals, pole fitness classes and social media influencers discovering that corsets photograph well.
Retailers have long observed curious regional differences. Adelaide reportedly developed a preference for red lingerie, Queensland embraced body stockings despite living in a climate seemingly designed to discourage additional layers, and men frequently purchased lingerie more enthusiastically than the people expected to wear it.
Burlesque-themed parties helped fuel demand for costumes and accessories, proving that no social trend is complete until somebody finds a way to sell an outfit for it.
Interestingly, during tougher economic times consumers often traded down on everyday items while still spending on novelty products and experiences. Apparently Australians are willing to postpone replacing their socks, but not necessarily their corsets.
The World’s Oldest Profession
If measuring condom sales is difficult, measuring the prostitution industry is almost impossible.
Despite decades of legalisation and regulation across various Australian states, estimating the true size of the industry remains notoriously challenging.
Victoria’s experience demonstrated one of the central dilemmas of regulation. While legal brothels expanded, large numbers of workers continued operating outside the licensed system, often citing lower fees, greater flexibility and better earnings.
Various studies over the years have estimated that tens of thousands of Australians purchase sexual services every week. The exact numbers are heavily disputed, but one thing is clear: the industry remains substantial regardless of whether governments attempt to regulate, prohibit or ignore it.
Like many industries, the economics are straightforward. Workers generate the revenue, venue operators take a significant share, and everyone complains about the regulators.
Some things never change.
Pornography: Australia’s Quiet Giant
The adult entertainment industry has undergone a complete transformation over the past twenty years.
Once dominated by DVDs, cable television and video stores hidden behind dark curtains, the market has shifted almost entirely online.
Earlier studies estimated Australian adult entertainment revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Today, with streaming, subscription platforms and user-generated content, measuring the industry’s true value is harder than ever.
One interesting finding has remained remarkably consistent: pornography consumption cuts across every demographic.
Married people watch it. Single people watch it. People in relationships watch it.
In fact, if survey data over the years is to be believed, the only people who don’t watch pornography are the people currently answering surveys about pornography.
The Death of Phone Sex
Few industries have been disrupted by technology as completely as phone sex.
What was once a booming business built on premium-rate telephone numbers has been largely wiped out by high-speed internet, video streaming, webcams, social media and AI-powered companionship services.
It turns out that charging people several dollars a minute to talk to a stranger becomes difficult when the internet offers an almost infinite number of alternatives.
Creative destruction can be brutal.
Private Dancers
Australia’s strip club industry has experienced multiple booms and busts over the years.
While the United States remains the undisputed global leader, Australia developed a substantial market of its own, particularly during the 1990s and early 2000s.
Today the industry competes not only with other venues but with streaming services, social media, online creators and a thousand other distractions.
In economic terms, strip clubs face the same challenge as every other entertainment business: convincing customers to leave the house.
Netflix, unfortunately, does not charge an entry fee or insist on a two-drink minimum.
The Bottom Line
The adult industry provides a surprisingly useful lens through which to view broader economic and social trends.
When technology changes, the industry changes.
When consumer behaviour changes, the industry changes.
When governments regulate, tax, legalise or prohibit, the industry adapts.
And when the economy turns south, people may postpone buying a new car, renovating the kitchen or upgrading the television.
But history suggests they remain remarkably reluctant to abandon romance, fantasy, companionship and the occasional packet of condoms.
Some markets are simply more resilient than others.
